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State-by-State Recruiting: “Average Remaining Talent”

By Mike

Dallas Jackson, Senior Analyst at Rivals recently ran a story explaining where Division 1 talent comes from and it made me think that this data should be taken a step further.

The following table shows the total amount of recruits signed per state, the total number of high school football players per state, the percentage of players signed from that state and finally the Average Remaining Talent (ART).

This last value, ART is a little fuzzy and deserves some explanation. I derived this value by first excluding four outliers: Florida, Louisiana, Georgia and Alabama. They were left out because the percentage of players that make it to the next level in these states is crazy high and skewed the national average.

After elminating the aforementioned states, I next ran this formula for each state:

(total_signed_nationally / total_athletes_nationally) – signed_from_state

This number left me with the average number players under or over recruited, or the ART.

The states with a negative(-) value have been over recruited and the positive numbers had left over talent that was overlooked for whatever reason.

State # Signed Total Players % Signed Avg. Remaining Talent
Florida* 344 38268 0.9 0
Louisiana* 87 14839 0.59 0
Georgia* 170 32088 0.53 0
Alabama* 86 22052 0.39 0
Utah 30 8104 0.37 -12.2
Oklahoma 44 12000 0.37 -17.7
Maryland/D.C. 49 16123 0.3 -13.7
Hawaii 14 4926 0.28 -3.2
Ohio 144 55027 0.26 -23.5
Arkansas 28 11120 0.25 -3.6
California 253 104224 0.24 -24.7
South Carolina 44 18962 0.23 -2.5
Mississippi 52 22306 0.23 -3.1
Delaware 7 3091 0.23 -0.2
North Carolina 79 35214 0.22 -1.9
Pennsylvania 60 26730 0.22 -1.4
Texas 345 161210 0.21 8.1
Virginia 56 25651 0.22 0.2
Arizona 41 19103 0.21 0.8
Nevada 13 6594 0.2 1.4
Tennessee 44 22868 0.19 6.1
New Jersey 45 25872 0.17 11.7
Colorado 22 14825 0.15 10.5
Illinois 73 49543 0.15 35.5
Kansas 20 14302 0.14 11.3
Kentucky 19 13842 0.14 11.3
Michigan 59 43678 0.14 36.7
Indiana 31 23023 0.13 19.4
Washington 24 22422 0.11 25.1
New Mexico 8 7672 0.1 8.8
Oregon 11 13357 0.08 18.3
Missouri 18 23504 0.08 33.5
New York 29 38354 0.08 55.0
Nebraska 8 10667 0.07 15.4
Wisconsin 22 29442 0.07 42.5
North Dakota 2 3018 0.07 4.6
Massachusetts 12 20626 0.06 33.2
Connecticut 6 10792 0.06 17.6
Idaho 4 7340 0.05 12.1
Alaska 1 2037 0.05 3.5
West Virginia 3 6404 0.05 11.0
Iowa 9 19451 0.05 33.6
Minnesota 11 25433 0.04 44.7
South Dakota 1 3756 0.03 7.2
Maine 1 4024 0.02 7.8
Montana 1 4775 0.02 9.5
New Hampshire 0 3679 0.0 8.1
Rhode Island 0 2901 0.0 6.4
Vermont 0 1385 0.0 3.0
Wyoming 0 2654 0.0 5.8

After pouring through the data, the first thing I found was it’s incredibly hard to get a D1 football offer. Only one out of 500 high school players get that chance—about one player out of every 10 high school teams.

I also found that alarmingly more players from Florida get a D1 scholarship. 344 out of 38,268 players (.0089%) in Florida received scholarship offers or 4 times the national rate. Either Florida is overhyped or there is significantly more talent than the national average.

As far as the states where a coach may be most successful in finding unfound talent, I would start in New York. The ART suggests 55 players may be found there. Could this be due to college bound athletes being interested in other sports on the East coast (soccer, lacrosse, etc.)? Or is the next super star not being offered?

For those of you hating on Dan Enos for attacking the state of Michigan in his recruiting efforts, it is definitely not validated by the data. Not only did a lot of the national talent come from Michigan (2.43%) but there was talent leftover. The ART suggests that 36 unknown players are left in the state.

I expect the 2012 Michigan class to again far exceed the national average and this only bodes well for CMU. Coach Enos and his staff have strong ties to the state and with the recent departures from the program, expect another big and talented class in 2012.



This entry was posted on Wednesday, March 9th, 2011 at 6:12 am and is filed under Dan Enos, Recruiting. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

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3 Responses to “State-by-State Recruiting: “Average Remaining Talent””

  1. Andrew

    Nice work developing the ART metric, Mike. I like it even more since it appears to forecast good classes for CMU. Now someone tell Enos to take a hard look at the Empire State!

  2. Mike

    Nearly the exact same amount of D1 offers came out of Florida(345) and Texas(344) but Texas has over 4 times the total football players as Florida!

    What does this mean?

  3. random

    side note: california has the most players in the nfl
    check it out
    http://slumz.boxden.com/f16/states-produce-most-nfl-players-1425547/

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